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Oromia-Ethiopia: The ‘new’ OLF program: much ado about nothing

January 6, 2012 at 1:52 am · Gadaa.com

By Jawar Mohammed*

Earlier this week, one of the several OLF factions announced that it had adapted a new political program that apparently drops the ‘secessionist’ agenda. This announcement was preceded and followed by hyped fanfare by Ginbot 7 and its affiliates.

The news had excited a segment of Ethiopia’s political community, long haunted by the prospect of an independent Oromia state and those democracy activists who wish to see cooperation among the opposition forces. Unfortunately, even for a casual observer of Ethiopian politics, the content of the new program does not show any substantive change nor the serious reflection the issue demands. What’s more, the exciting narrative employed to sell the supposed change to the public is at best disingenuous, misleading and distracting in the long run.

What’s new in the brief and poorly articulated announcement?
The press release announcing the new program reveals the superficial nature of the said change in policy. The closest inference to the much-celebrated “change of heart” reads, “The new OLF political program will accept the new federal democratic republic of Ethiopia.” There are two serious flaws here.

First, federalism, even if more of a facade, is now a two-decade-old experiment in Ethiopia; hence, it’s not clear what this ‘new federalism’ entails. Second, this is hardly a change, as OLF, not only accepted federalism during the 1991 transition, but was also its leading architect. To ‘accept’ federalism, a system it helped create 20 years ago, is at best disingenuous. Paradoxically, it is Ginbot 7 and affiliates, who are adamantly opposed to federalism, that need to accept it – not the other way around.

On dropping the secessionist bombshell
The buzz on both ends of the political divide about OLF dropping ‘secessionism’ and embracing ‘Ethiopianism’ are equally misleading. The Oromo movement, particularly one led by the OLF, had never foreclosed on the possibility of resolving the Oromo question within the existing Ethiopian state structure. The OLF program, through all of its amendments from the time of founding to now, left the door open for both options: reforming Ethiopia and establishing an independent Oromia.

The organization of late relies on the vague notion of ‘self-determination,’ especially in its diplomatic outreach, for keeping these two options open. The much-celebrated new program invokes the same vague declaration asserting that, “the OLF will respect and honor all decisions the Ethiopian peoples will make using their right of self-determination.”

Beneath the fanfare, this is yet another word game in the never-ending drama of Ethiopian politics where politicians conceal their real objectives behind loose words. Amhara parties espouse unity while covering up their quest to regain dominance’ Oromos use self-determination to appease and confuse their internal and external audience, while Tigreans proclaim democracy and federalism to camouflage their monopoly.

Why all the huffing and puffing?
The only change in all of this, if any, is the shift in the attitude of the ‘unity’ crowd. In the past, whenever Oromo organizations reached out to ‘unionist’ organizations, they were met with suspicion, pessimism, and outright rejection. This time around, they are, not only embracing the ‘changed OLF,’ but also intensely engaged in disseminating and promoting the news.

There are three possible explanations for this:

1) The ‘unity’ crowd has always suffered from self-righteousness in attempting to assert a moral high ground against the ‘ethno-nationalist’ camps. They now see the OLF ‘embracing Ethiopia’ as their victory, a testament to the inferiority of nationalist narrative.

2) Ginbot 7 has been attempting to forge alliances with ‘armed’ and nationalist organizations, an effort frustrated by rival groups, such as the EPRP, which accuse it of endangering Ethiopian unity. Therefore, Ginbot 7 & affiliates are beating the drum louder pronouncing that the OLF has ‘embraced Ethiopia,’ a rhetoric solely designed to silence their critics. This also gives the leaders of Ginbot 7 some bragging rights for bringing a ‘rebel child home.’

3) In the last several years, there has been a popular demand to reduce tension and antagonism, between the Oromo and Amhara political communities, and replace it with reconciliation and cooperation. Thus, some, including international observers, were deceived taking the recent drama for a genuine initiative.

Oromo activists are likening this development to the formation of a new OPDO. The actions and attitudes of Ginbot 7 leadership elevate this suspicion. By sidestepping a genuine negotiation it had started with the core leadership and intellectuals, and ‘running away’ with splinter cadres, Ginbot 7 appears to be imitating what the TPLF had done in late 80’s.

It might be the case that, in order to become a dominant voice in its envisioned coalition, Ginbot 7, despite the rhetoric, prefers to have a weaker OLF faction than a united front. But this is a serious strategic blunder. First, Ginbot 7 is not at a stage where TPLF was at the time. TPLF had already effectively defeated the Derg and needed satellite organizations only to legitimize its rule. In contrast, Ginbot 7 is banking on the Oromo support to overthrow Meles. At this juncture, such support cannot be garnered via a parasite organization and deceitful tactics.

Second, unlike the prisoners of war, who made up the original OPDO, leaders and cadres of this OLF faction, even if seemingly novice ideologues, are hardcore nationalists who cannot be reduced to a subservient role. Like their predecessors, Ginbot 7 leaders seem to have taken the goodwill of the Oromo for naivety. But, this could be a blessing in disguise with a potential to unite the fratricidal OLF factions becoming a catalyst for a popular demand of many diaspora based compatriots.

Hiding behind mountains of failure
Organizationally, the OLF has been on a downward spiral for the last two decades. The release of a ‘new’ program and formation of newer partnerships have, in essence, become a tactical gamble to cover up its organizational inefficiency and strategic blunders. This new faction emerged in 2008 with the promise of ushering in a swift ‘change’ and reigniting the struggle. Three and half years later, it had no results to show for the “change we can believe in.” Thus, in order to remain relevant and renew their contract with their constituency, they have to announce a new initiative.

Similarly, Ginbot 7 emerged by promising to bring down Meles and establish democracy within few years, if not months. Yet, three years later, it had nothing to show for it. Part of its support base is the ‘urban middle class,’ a result-oriented constituency that demands return on its money and cannot be satisfied by nationalistic rhetoric alone. Thus, amid their shared desperation, the leaders of the two groups hope to use the alliance to calm their critics and energize supporters.

In search of a shortcut
These newer and more ambitious OLF cadres, fed up with the old and conservative institution, are interested in ‘doing something’ regardless of its consequences, and whether it addresses or exacerbates the root causes of the conflict. Likewise, Ginbot 7, whose top leaders are engaged in a bitter personal feud with TPLF leaders, are hell-bent on avenging, by any means necessary, the humiliation they were dealt following the 2005 controversial election.

In order to thrive, the two groups need to access to each other’s resources (political, economic, manpower). The OLF, whose financial support from among its constituency has dried up, seeks to tap into Ginbot 7’s relatively better-endowed constituency. The OLF would also like to penetrate the Amharic-dominated media market in order to reach the urban constituency, Ginbot 7’s mainstay. Ginbot 7 lacks a military capability, both in terms of manpower and an area of operation. OLF’s military experience and relative access to Oromo recruits and jungles of Oromia, is indispensable for a possible insurgency.

In addition, the leaders of Ginbot 7, whose ambition was cut short due to the re-alliance of the Oromo elite with the ruling party during the aftermath of the 2005 election, clearly understand the need for an Oromo partner to gain the support of – or at least neutralize – the domestic Oromo constituency.

Despite these needs, they do not expect cooperation to be smooth. The two groups represent antagonistic political communities whose narratives do not see eye to eye, both in terms of diagnosing the problem and prescribing a solution. They rely on sharply contradictory analysis of the historical root causes of the problem in Ethiopia and have conflicting visions about the future. Bridging this entrenched animosity is a horrendous and time-consuming task beyond the stamina of the two groups under discussion. Thus, bypassing it with minimal and symbolic compromises, while leaving the major differences aside, seems the easy way out.

The appearance of communality between these two groups is not just a preference for quick fix. But it is the inability to learn from strategic mistakes they’ve made just few years back. The leaders of Ginbot 7 did not learn from their debacles with Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD) and few botched attempted ‘operations’ afterwards. By making the same hasty and immature decision like its original ‘coup’ against Dawud Ibsa’s leadership, the OLF faction also demonstrated the same utter lack of self-reflection.

Can this tactical alliance work?
Generally speaking, bringing about regime change through allying forces presumes that:

a) each member party brings certain capabilities (strategies, experience) and resources (human, material, financial) to the table, and

b) the alliance would be sustainable.

Unfortunately, neither the OLF faction nor Ginbot 7 has tangible operational capabilities. Both parties are Diaspora-based with little to no organizational visibility on the ground. They lack organizational strength and a feasible strategy to build one. The leaders themselves are not willing to directly engage in the conflict and are resigned to waging a long-distance war.

In other words, both parties bring no tangible strategic resources to the battlefield and their alliance adds little firepower to the opposition camp. There are very few examples historically, where an opposition brought down an incumbent without direct action, be it through nonviolence or armed struggle.

This alliance is unlikely to be sustainable either. While avoiding concrete compromise makes it easy to form an alliance, it also paves a way for internal and external actors to break it apart. The two groups are not addressing the contentious issues that divide their respective constituency – inviting detractors to poke at these glossed-over differences, stir up controversy and crack the alliance. For instance, within hours of the announcement, the OLF faction was confronted with internal revolt and defection from the rank and file — further depleting its already slim base.

This is in addition to the members and most of the seasoned leadership that had already dissociated itself long before the announcement. It will not be a surprise then if the leadership is forced to rollback its compromises in an effort to reclaim some nationalist credentials. Resorting to nationalistic rhetoric, after causing so much euphoria, will have a dampening effect on Ginbot 7’s constituency — which will pressure its own leaders back to their previous stance. This is exactly what happened to the Alliance for Freedom and Democracy (AFD).

Narcissism of righteousness
It’s quite disturbing to observe the ongoing orgy of self-congratulation amongst the ‘unity’ crowd. Ginbot 7 is busy taking credit while its conservative base is elated with glorious victory of their ideology. Unfortunately, the claim is false, and the declaration of victory is erroneous.

Before this announcement, some leaders of Ginbot 7 implied that they had convinced the OLF to change its mind. Such hyperbolic claims might help them collect some credit from their base, but ignores such paternalistic attitude can cause serious backlash against the partner they were grooming.

It is true that the emergence of moderate parties, such as Ginbot 7, has been a positive development in improving dialogue between the two constituencies. However, to imply that Ginbot 7 baptized the OLF and helped it see the light of the day is foolish.

Starting in the late 80’s, Oromo nationalism has been undergoing a sustained internal critique. The debates have helped scholars and activists to scrutinize the objective, strategy and external relation of the movement. Hence, the issue of working with Amhara organizations and democratizing Ethiopia had been widely discussed long before Ginbot 7 appeared on the scene, and the discussion continued even when some Ginbot 7 leaders were dismissive of the Oromo struggle. They might be unaware of the internal discussions, but how could they forget the fact that AFD, the predecessor to their current initiative, was the brainchild of the OLF? The Oromo leaders did not have to go to jail to recognize the genuine concern of those who worry about the potential danger associated with breaking up of the country.

Both this OLF faction and Ginbot 7 seem to be unaware of this history.

Given that the independence of Oromia has been a nightmare that long haunting the ‘unity’ crowd, it is understandable that the news of the OLF ‘dropping secessionism’ offers a sigh of relief. But what we’re observing is not an expression of relief, but rather a declaration of ideological victory.

First, considering the half-hearted announcement is a usual tactical move coming from a small and disgruntled faction, it is too premature to declare a victory. Second, in a situation where there are competing nationalist narratives, such declaration is likely to stir up anger on the other side — weakening the moderates and strengthening the ultra-nationalists. To ensure its political survival, the moderate leadership would be forced to abandon the center.

Third, the sense of victory felt by the ‘unity’ crowd does not seem to recognize the demographic changes taking place in Ethiopia. Oromo nationalism was built by successfully deconstructing the Ethiopian nationalism. Since 1991, the former has effectively displaced the later in Oromia, and as a result, an entire generation has been brought up with that narrative. Furthermore, despite its limits, self-rule has allowed the rise of millions of bureaucratic elites, who have vested material and political interest in preserving the gains of the Oromo struggle and maintaining the nationalist narrative.

Although OLF was mainly responsible for constructing the Oromo nationalism, it is no longer in control of it. While the absence of a viable alternative political organization still allows the front to make minimal adjustments to the nationalist narrative, any shift that is perceived to endanger the interest of the rising bureaucratic elite faces automatic rejection.

Therefore, Ethiopian nationalism, with its conservative and assimilationist undertone, has little chance of re-establishing itself in Oromia, Ogaden, Sidama, Afar or anywhere else other than some urban areas and the Amhara region. The current elation is an exercise in self-deception, and further cripples Ethiopian nationalism as a unifying ideology by preventing it from transforming itself to adapt to new realities.

“There are no shortcuts to any place worth going”
The widespread antagonism we’re facing is a legacy of centuries of confrontations. Over this long period of conflict, the land has been drenched with blood, and left us with painful memories that need to be recognized; deep-rooted prejudices that must be exorcised; and pervasive political, social and cultural disparities that must be addressed.

This is necessary both for waging a unified struggle against the current dictatorship and for building a democratic, inclusive, and stable country afterwards. In order to be sustainable and effective, alliance of forces need to be built on a solid foundation. Such foundation requires reaching concrete consensus on our collective past, present, and future. Issues of historical legacy had to be addressed head on. The role and share of the constituent parties of the alliance need to be clearly spelt out. The formula for equitable distribution of power and wealth must be developed. And, each political block must openly and honestly communicate these compromises to their perspective constituency in order to secure a genuine support from the plurality. As we’ve observed during the Arab Spring and previous transitions, reaching concrete agreement on the rule of the game does not only help depose dictators, but it is also an indispensable factor in ensuring the establishment and consolidation of a democratic order.

Simply put, any initiative that hushes over the past and sends ambiguous messages about the future is doomed to fail. Sadly, when they fail, they cause setback to positive gains by depleting trust and complicating issues. As the Oromo proverb goes, “karaan sobaan darban galaaf nama dhiba” or its Amharic version “alebabsew biyarsu barem yimelsu.”

—
* Jawar Mohammed is a graduate student at Columbia University, New York. He can be reached at jawarmd@gmail.com.

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50 Comments

  1. Maattii said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 5:16 am

    Wonderful analysis. I hope everyone will read this article in its entirety.

    Bravo JM!

  2. Kaayyoo said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 5:43 am

    Obbo Jawar,
    what a nice analysis! You summarized, what is goning on in reality. This move of the OLF is not as such new and also not as such disadvantageos for the Oromo liberation movement. But, it simply exazerbated the endless conflict we usually do have based on the visions regarding the type of walabummaa Oromia we, the Oromo nation, will have in the future, the conflict which is still haunting us. The current move of Gen Kamal’s group in explicitly announcing to ‘accept a federal republic of Ethiopia’ is the case in point. I think, this move is not different from the implicit acceptance of the same type of federalism by the OLF in 1991 and from the position of Ob Daud as he formed AFD together with Habesha forces in 2006. The leaders of the OLF had the same intention in heart as Ob Galaasa tried to build an alliance with Ethiopian forces in Asmara around 1998. The only conflict we saw between QC and SG as AFD was formed was based on the fact that QC was excluded; and now the conflict we do see between JJ and SG seems to be based on the reality that SG is not yet invloved in the process.

    This conflict has nothing to do with the ideology regarding walabummaa Oromia I mentioned above. The RF-Model (Russian Federaion model) of walabummaa, i.e ‘Oromian Independence’, remains to be the CORE of the Kaayyoo-Oromo or as the Kaayyoo of the middle part of our Fighter-Jet (middle body of our Oromo liberation movement). The UK-Model (United Kingdom model) walabummaa, which is ‘Oromian Ethiopia’ or genuine nation-based Ethiopian federation, where Oromia and Afaan Oromo will play a centeral role, can be considered as a move to the left wing of the Fighter-Jet and it is not less beneficial than the core Kayyoo. The US-Model (United States model), i.e ‘Orominized Ethiopia’ or the region-based Ethiopian federation, in which the historical Oromian regions (Odaa-Bisil, Bulluqi, Bultum, Garress, Makkodi, Nabe and Rooba) as well as Afaan Oromo will dominate the union, is like opting for the right wing of the Fighter-Jet, again this move is not disadvantageous as we usually used to think.

    For me, these three Kaayyoo’s can be symbolized by the circular Abbaa-Gadaa’s tricolor: the inner circle, the white ring, being the core Kaayyoo (Oromian independence), the middle circle (the red one), which I do consider as the more beneficial Kaayyoo (Oromian Ethiopia) and last but not least, the outer circle (the black) is the probably most beneficial Kaayyoo (Orominized Ethiopia). That is why, I do tend to think that the conflict between Oromo liberation forces regarding the type of walabummaa Oromia in general is artificial. I hope your input can help us be wise and coordinate the three parts of our liberation movement (left wing, middle body and right wing) against the currently tormenting fascist and racist Gujile in order to achieve bilisummaa Oromo and then allow the Oromo public to decide on the type of walabummaa Oromia per referendum.

  3. Albatchew said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 6:15 am

    You nailed it jawar. it is absolutely right that the alliance fanfared by Ginbot 7 has by no menas long lasting as has no strong basis.

  4. DASSENNECH said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 6:59 am

    This does not look like an article from Jewar I Know or you must have hidden personality. You used a title from Shakespeare written in 1600. Much Ado About Nothing Study Guide & Essays But that doesn’t mean Shakespeare did nothing by William Shakespeare the same goes with you. I read more of hatred and unfriendly languages from your article rather than reconciliatory phrases.
    You have all the right to write what you feel but for me it is way off, is even to coarse to comment on.

    thanks

  5. Nanda Demcha said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 7:13 am

    Yes well said Jawar, It;s sickening to see once again those who failed to recognise the truth about the injustices inflicted on the Oromos and dismissive of their demand for justice as anti unity sentiment rearing their ugly and rancorous head in premature victory

  6. abdi said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 7:24 am

    Oromo self determinatiuon for the oromo people is their right. Why should they be oppressed and forced to speak a minority langauge.

  7. Galangalee said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 7:25 am

    This is fact not fiction. This time you wrote ” like it is”. Yes, they turn to G- 7 for survaival and G-7 is need them for ” political victory” to convince its supporters to contribute money. Both need each other. They wrapped in common “survaval kits”.

  8. Hunde Guduru said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 8:08 am

    Ddear Jawar,

    Your analysis really touch the hear of all those who like to prevail truth and denounce wrongdoing in any society. Of course you beautifully summarized your essay by a couple of words by using the proverb of both Oromo and Amaras, which I don’t need to repeat. In the meantime when you hold a candle in your hand and a truth in your word it shins by itself and no need justification. You said the reality what many confused or confusing individuals deliberately ignored.

    Of course some of the leaders of Ginbot 7 and some cadres of OLF jijjirama didn’t learn the reality that our people went through and still facing. As you said in your analysis, someone as a leader don’t need to go jail to learn the reality about the society he lived in for life, like Dr. Brehanu Nega. Particularly this professor of Economics lectured in Ethiopia for years which would have enabled him to understand even the minor issues there. It was not surprising when he gathered a public meeting in Addis during 2001 where many Oromo university students including my self participated. He was with Mesfin W/mariam when insulting by saying all of Oromo as stubborn and he perpetuated the so called “three thousand years of Ethiopian history”. While he was not considering any of our concern during the meeting, he just need to go to Qaliti jail center to learn about the real problem facing Oromo. By the way I was appreciated him when I heard his lesson from jail, but surprised when this kind of tactics are used simply to buy support from Oromo as cheap as this.
    I personally never expected a lot from someone who always want to cover reality and try to confuse the other community, rather I seek a real commitment and hard work within us by working together to realize what great leaders in the past committed for. Of course this commitment for true democracy and freedom should be for all not only Oromo, Amahara or any one. let our mission be beyond their expectation.

    Thanks for your analysis!

  9. Dhugaa Dubataa said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 8:19 am

    Jawar;

    This time you nailed it. This analysis will be one the best reference for the next generation to come.

    Thanks again, and Happy New Year!

  10. Gofta said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 8:56 am

    The best of Jewar so far. What a fantastic analysis!!

  11. Neither said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 9:32 am

    This is a very thorough practical analysis that only the groups that it is directed to would probably deny to accept,but for the rest of us who are looking for the truth ,like searching a needle in hump of hay, is as clear as the water in the mountain. May God help those under Tyrany get a relief,my prayer!!!!! Viva MJ, Mucha Arssi

  12. Keelloo said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 10:26 am

    Good analysis.
    But unless you major in theology at columbia what stopped you state the fact that the only solution to this century-old confilict is neither a resolution by a splinter political group or by individuals, but, like in all other countries which suffered similar abuses, a free and fair REFERENDUM by all oromos after removing all obstacles in their way. Where are you here Mr. Mohammed?

  13. Gadaa Visitor said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 11:14 am

    General truth. Let everybody read this article and learn from mistakes…

  14. WT said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 11:31 am

    WELL SAID!!!!!!!!!!!! OROMIA WILL BE FREE AT ANY COST AND OUR BLOOD.

  15. eth said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 11:35 am

    Mr Jawar, Your article is full of criticism. We wish to know your solution or recommendation. This is what should have made your article most significant. How ca we go forward to end the tyranny? Ethiopian people, mainly Oromos and AMharas are now vulnerable to slavery whether you believe iot or not if the current [political marginalisation, land grabbing and denial of their own resoruce continues> This is inevitable? Meles is saling out the land by taking from the poor Oromos, Amhara etc. The investors- they are the most devilish human beings- are corrupting the Meles regime and giving him military support to empower him control over the freedom of people; the resource of our people. If you travel from west to east (except ethiopia-but beginning) and North to South of Africa- All the resources, companies such as from big (mining) to small like restaurants and mini supermarkets- are controlled by the foreigners- France, Americans, Arabs, Chinese and Indians and others, while the few local people are given job to work for them at their own resource/environment, with cheap wage, while majority remain unemployed. The investors are now establishing strong security network in many countries to oppress and enslave the labourers through the government police and private security companies. This is a very sophisticated colonialism and indeed the most oppressive, and fatal. Please Mr Jawar, I wish if you would come up with a tangible solution how we could free ourselves, be owner of our own land and resources-to bring a sustainable development to our nations. Mr Jawar, Why are you in AMerica? Are you still happy?

    All people of Ethiopian and the whole of Africa need leaders who bring solutions to their nations-access to education, freedom and respect of human right, food to eat, water to drink, and soon…..

    I wish If you read about ANC struggle and would have learnt something. Generally, we Ethiopians- are very good in criticizing and theorizing, but fail to bring peaceful solutions.

    Prof Wako ( an Oromo, and lecturer)

  16. Kutu said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 12:16 pm

    Dear Jawar, heddu galatoomi for this all inclusive analysis! Well elaborated and defined that, accknowleging and addressing the past injustic is the way forward for the future unity. No single Amhara has ever for a second as an individual or a group appologized for the hundred years of land expropration, ban on Oromo language, ban on Gadaa and Oromoo culture and subjecting Oromo to servitude. Anyways, I am glad the Amharas celebrated with the highest tone, it only made oromos more skeptical of their hidden motives and created the need to once again strengethen strong oromo nationalism. Its a blessing in disguise!!

    Jabaadhu lammii koo amma yeroon keenya!!

  17. Damana said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 12:29 pm

    Jawar has definitely made a right turn on this one. Excellent observation and analysis, nevertheless. The Jawar I knew so far wouldn’t have agreed with the beautiful assumptions and calculations made in this article. I guess, after a long hiatus or silence he wanted to make himself relevant.
    Good and well thought article.
    Let’s hear more from our brothers.

  18. Brki Teshome said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 12:52 pm

    Wonderful analysis as usual. Thank you Jawar Mohamed. For those who have an intention to learn, this is an excellent article to benefit from.
    Berki

  19. dorch31 said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 1:43 pm

    Well articulated as usual, but what is the way forward to that country? I am very adamant that the tit-for-tat we are having at present can do any substance to the core issue.!

  20. Kutu said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 2:01 pm

    Please can somebody transelate this in to Oromo, so that Kamal Galchuu and his high school drop out friends can comperehend!!

  21. Kush said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 5:08 pm

    the article is good but lucks clarity of thought, especially when it comes to the solution. In your famour article about OLF you said ‘OLF is damaged by repair’ due to leadership crisis. Proffesor Mesay seem agreed on the damage beyond repiar but counter-argued the reason as ideological crisis. The core question regharding OLF is not about alliance formation but its secession ideology. No body ever tried to address this issue theoretically let alone practically. and this question the rerason behind why OLF couldn’t get support/sympathy from both local and international actors. Because the task of creating boundary between oromo and non-oromos in the event of an independent oromia seems to be a nightmare scenario. In light of this fact, are you defending secessionist ideology or want simply counter-arguing any kind of alliance against TPLF ethinic appartied?

  22. Kush said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 5:42 pm

    In your famoust article about OLF, you said that OLF is damaged beynd repair due to leadership crisis. And Proff. Mesay counter-argued the reason for the damage as ideological crisis of secessionist agenda. How do you reconcile yourself Mr. jawar? The single important point regarding Oromo secession/referamdum question is the task of creating boundary between Oromo and the rest in the event of independent Oromia seems to be a nightmare scenario. That is why all local and international actors don’t want to hear about OLF let alone sympathising/supporting is cause- even if they acknowledge Oromos have legitimate grievances.

  23. kekule said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 6:29 pm

    It is true that G-7 was supposed to accept the right of self determination of all nations, before talking about unity. G-7 is the worest political organization for non-Amhara nations, they are praying to reconstruct the old system back in ethiopia. It is clear from their manifesto where they are in their ideology, it is full of empty words( freedom, democracy,peace, equlity).

  24. Waralata said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 7:10 pm

    I always admire your outstanding and genuine analysis politics as you know it short sightness or miscalculations leads to un desired end where there will be no recovery.What “the new OLF and Ginbote 7′will end up is in the same dich like others before them.Unless broad front that includes parties and civil societies work to gether, there will be no inching forward let alone removing tyrannt Meles and his cronies from power.Keep with up the good work.Thank you.

  25. Bola said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 7:56 pm

    ” THE FATE OF 40 YEARS OLF IN THE HANDS OF 20 YEARS OLD KID”. Are you defender of OLF or offender- do u spport Oromian secession or Ethiopian unity under Abyssinian domination?

  26. Garo said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 9:04 pm

    Ginbot 7is not any different from the other unity parties in content but may be in style. Remember when Nega said the Oromos should apologize to the Ethiopian people for trying to assert their national right.

  27. Bishan Oromo said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 10:06 pm

    Jawar Thank you,
    It Is an excellent analysis: you nailed it.
    I wounder what our General Is thinking?

  28. kekule said,

    January 6, 2012 @ 11:48 pm

    Nega is the worest enemy oromo people who organized his ethnic group and amhara in some oromia cities to revolt against oromo language schooling system in oromia in 1998 but he failed to materialize it. He is trying destroy everything that has oromo tag on it.

  29. Salaalee said,

    January 7, 2012 @ 12:25 am

    Hello Jawar,
    I’ve got to like your brilliant analysis on the farce drama featured by these naive Generals who have dropped themselves into a hell where they can’t find anyone to rescue them …..This shows their failure to understand the degree of awareness of the Qubee generations who won’t kneel down for these sell outs ..
    ………………………..Shane is also another lazy ass!

    God bless our fatherland!

  30. W said,

    January 7, 2012 @ 1:45 am

    For sure
    It sounds to me that most comentators are not Oromos but probably are Weyane’s cadres. Believe me or not, Time has come for all peace loving ethiopians stand together and free their country, and establish a system where true democracy, right of people, equality, love, respect and prosperity prevail. Oromos naturally respect other people and live with them. This is the main reason why Ethiopia is staying as a country. Most commentators who are full of hatred of others are subjecting us to enemity. It is becasue of you that many in the country are developing biterness…… Please be mature and show respect to all hiuman kind. Hatred will always keep you feel inferior and empty. As I see from the comments, you even never have solution to how Ethiopia should progress?? It is my parents land which has been grabbed and given to the alliens without any consultation, and justice. My parents remain poorer and subject to slavery. It is my brothers who are forced to immigrate becasue there is not access to living in our country; becasue they have been denied of their human right; becasue they have been criminalized though they are innocents. While traveling, most are unsuccessful because they are eaten by wild beasts in the jungle, dying of hunger and thirsty when crossing boarders to boarders (look how many Oroms in Yemen, Somali land, Tanzania etc) are suffering? Raping in Arab countries, how many are commiting suicide? I have seen many times when crippled/ inasane girls landed to Bole airport- which is from Arab countries.. How many were killed by Xenophobic attack in South Africa? Meles Zenawi has been brutually killing Oromos in Secret, but not Oromos Amharas, Southerners too, From Ogaden etc….. So people; Why are you writing of nonsense, while this is the fact and needs an all inclusive struggle for freedom.

  31. W said,

    January 7, 2012 @ 1:52 am

    Why are you failing to recognize that Oromo can never form its own nation as this will casuethe most traumatic and endless civil war becasue of the fact that there is no true boundary between Oromo and Ogaden; Oromo and Afar, Oromo and Amhara; Oromo and Tigre; Oromo and South etc….

    Please be snesitive to the fact that also Oromo is living married with all the above groups and have its blood dispurssed throughout; Please go deep to my parents and will give you the right answer; if you would ask them would you like to have independent oromia and live with other people. I assure you you will get a very few < 2% who wil choose Independent Oromia. Go and ask Our Oromo elders whom I am very proud of becasue of their wisdom (wiser than any other-I could say)- you will get the answer of living together with all.

    Please< I haVE NEVER BEEN INVOLVED IN POLITICS EXCEPT RECENTLY BECASUE OF THE growing suffering of all beloved people of Ethiopia- Oromos, Amharas, Gurages, Ogaden, Afar, etc.
    My heart and aspitration is now going too deep into my inner body for libration of the whole people of Ethiopia.

    You make things very complicated but the solution to all Ethiopian people is simple: Reconcilation; justice, freedom, peace, respect and love

    General Kemal-you are in the right track our dear and we are hopeful that our freedom is inevitable
    May God Bless You

  32. Firaa said,

    January 7, 2012 @ 1:53 am

    What an article!! An indepth and realistic analysis at the right time.
    Appreciate you greatly, Jawar.

  33. Daandii Dhugaa said,

    January 7, 2012 @ 2:07 am

    G-7 has been a desguised anti-Oromo struggle for freedom & injustice which is found out, at least, at this juncture. Its leaders r so deficit of integrity. Now, they try to want us what we don’t need. As to our brethren, we’r used to betrayal for so long that it even bestows us with more strength to pursue the kayyoo of Oromo. J, u deserve gratitude for the maturity!

  34. Netsanet said,

    January 7, 2012 @ 2:34 am

    IT IS GREAT ANALYSIS. FULLY I endorse it. FOR THOSE WHO are requesting the solution for the
    problems, LET HIM write for you in depth analysis. BUT for the time being, the general solution will be..
    read the paragraphs in his article again,,AFTER,,,,,“There are no shortcuts to any place worth going”.

  35. Qe Qa said,

    January 7, 2012 @ 2:56 am

    Thanks Jawar! In fact all the OLF factions and other Oromo political movements explicitly or implicitly accept a genuinely federal democratic Ethiopia if they are included in the negotiation process and given the right roles and functions from the start to the finish.

    Excluding each other is the main stumbling block. Why exclude in any case since the question is about equality and democracy in a diverse and heterogeneous society. Exclusion always produces bitterness and opposition from the excluded.

  36. andnet said,

    January 7, 2012 @ 6:51 am

    Prof Wako ( an Oromo, and lecturer)

    I hope when you teach your students in a class, you start by explaining the problems without providing the solutions. As long as I follow his comments and articles, he was explaining the existing problems from different perspectives and providing the basic solutions for the problems. In this article, he didn’t only criticize your Ginbout-7, but also he criticize the other parties. Finally he put the way forward as a general solutions. You can read the last paragraphs.. THAT IS THE BEST SOLUTIONS!!!!. PLS ACCEPT THAT SOME TIMES TEACHER MIGHT FAIL TO UNDERSTAND WHAT THE STUDENT TRY TO EXPLAIN. I am expecting from our thinker the depth analysis and solutions to UNIT our POORLY organized Opposition parties. HOWEVER, it would be a grave mistakes to allow such disastrous move to get green light.

  37. Mo'aa said,

    January 7, 2012 @ 8:16 am

    Kamal’s group explicitly announcing an ‘International self-determination’ as its goal is not wrong in principle! They have right just like the God-given right of the Dhugaasa’s faction to persue its goal of ‘External self-determination’. Of course Daud’s group being open for both types of self-determination and stressing a REFERENDUM on the two options is a conciliatory position. The last decission on the issue must be left for the Oromo public at large! I think what angered Jawar and the other Oromo nationals, who are opposing the move of the General is the Euphoria and the premature celebration of the Abesha camp! The fool Abeshas just tried to hide their own giving up of the Centeralism position and their accepting of the nation-based federation, which they vehemently used to oppose. Actually the position now taken by the Kamal’s group is not new for the OLF, but the move of the Abesha camp to this position of accepting the ‘federal republic of Ethiopia’ or the Internal self determination is new! Simply put the Oromo camp is the one who won in the negotiation between the Kamal’s group and the G-7, it is not a victory for Abesha camp!!

  38. moggoo said,

    January 7, 2012 @ 11:51 am

    people who is talking about oromuma, enyuma, bilisuma, senaa, akakyu ababayu… think little about your self when your name and your child name is habesha neme like…tadese,salamon,germa ….blabla…first make yourself out of colonizer name before talking about oromuma you are stil title of slave name. what a shame, what a double standard we know you are advanced by those names in side habesha camp and when those suffer becouse there oromuma and name. my be this unity is more good for those who have title or sign name of colonizer.

  39. Berki Teshome said,

    January 7, 2012 @ 1:13 pm

    Why should Jawar be forced to give a solution?
    He pointed out what is going on and which will not make any good both to the Oromos and the non-Oromos. A genuine reder can get the solution from the article. I feel that “don’y say anything if you cannot give a solution” is a means of shutting up someone.

    Jawar well articulated without siding or opposing any group. He just explained that such alliance will not benefit any group. He saying that this alliance cannot go an inch further to materalize its goal. He used to comment similarly when OLF factions tried to reconcile in the past. Please ask your friends about his comment on Minnesota Radio Oromial when Jijjiramaa and Shanee signed an agreement about two years ago. You can prove that Jawar is right.
    People have different gifts. If Jawar knows how to point out wrongdoings, let’s appreciate him and let’s try to find the solution on our own.
    Berki

  40. guutuu sabaa said,

    January 7, 2012 @ 1:55 pm

    Congratulation Jewar!
    you made it this time. Changes and challenges are window of opportunities. The challenge a head of us will sharpen so many blunt swords and prepares for the future.
    Overall you put it very well and I like to read your work in the future if it goes well like this. Again good job.

  41. Surprise said,

    January 7, 2012 @ 4:36 pm

    The guys did us a wonderful unintended job! I have to credit the jijiirama folks for not only uniting oromos against themselves but for making oromos express their thoughts regarding their undertanding of the goals of OLF so unequivocally for the first time. So, if oromo obviously are unanimous on the unquestionale defence of their right of self determination no matter what, the only question remains why the so-called “leaders” fail to understand this clear popular mandate to unite.
    On the other hand, Jijiiramas have learned the hardway that they and oromos have different definitions for ABO (OLF).

  42. Waqjiraa Gudataa said,

    January 7, 2012 @ 5:52 pm

    YES, THE QUBEE GENERATION NEVER COMPROMISE ON OROMIA’S DESTINY!,
    For the good will of the Oromo nation, we continuously provoked by the Ginbot 7 and ahmara medias who see even the democratic empire means they loose their dream of supermacy in terms of economics,culture and power of politics as a resisting against any change. Our talented gurus JAWAR and GERESU TUFA responded to our enemies for such aggressivly attack. The Oromo nation heartily proud of them up to the bottom of their heart. Thanks indeed, both of you our Great!
    For the fact the majority of the Oromos are suspicious when it comes to our reletioships with ahmaras, but under strong vigilance our nation gave the green light a go-ahead alliance for unity against the TPLF regime. OROMO AFFAIRS as always a national vigilance protested aggressively against such move even when Jawar too supported Dr. Berihanu’s participation on OSA conference as a pave to a good cooperation among our nations. Paradoxically, once more it is Ahmaras who destroyed the true sense of unity of the people. When for the last 100 years, they destroyed the region ,unwise to anybody to expect from them the vision for development and stability. True, Dr. Berihanu hates Oromos, but he is the screen while the real film is chauvinists. The relationships between Oromos and Ahmaras is always a poisinous cocktail and this time, the time to take as the last attempt-impossible mission. Such external interference in our politics should enforce our Tokkummaa. Inside TPLF there is a bitter division between hardliners aka Siye and Assirat for great Tigray and the ruling Adua junta who prefers to join after their exit from Finfinnee .We too must come together as a tumsa when our affairs challenged by our enemies.Our strategical interst should based on historical relations towards Ogadean, Sidama, Afar and others. As far as Tigray concerned, they ready for their independency when the time comes .

  43. Dhugumaa said,

    January 7, 2012 @ 6:53 pm

    While reading this extraordinary article, one has to look dictionary frequently to understand words such as ado. If it is intended for highly educated elite, it is okay. Otherwise, in order to make it inclusive, think an individual like me. I don’t mean it is bad, but I just want to point out that you make your article smooth to your reader.

  44. kekule said,

    January 7, 2012 @ 7:56 pm

    Ginbot 7 is not moderate political organization at all, they against FEDERALISM.

  45. Arsom Ganaa said,

    January 7, 2012 @ 9:22 pm

    Dear Oromo audience;
    The comment / Article by Jawar Mohammed regarding the new OLF function who sought to secessionist’ their original agenda also reflect much of his personal stand on the core nationalism of preemptive old movement that is in a verge of becoming a political party simply to fulfill the 40 years old double card players dictatorial leadership of the old OLF.
    Today in 21st century, it is hurt breaking sad to try to force and still hardily curve the interest of 40 million strong Oromo to the 40 year old of semo question secessionism. Thus far, we have lost many precious lives and we underscored nothing, besides singing the voice of old resumes that supposedly broadened our Oromomma/awareness.
    To repeat Mr. Jawar’s comment that called a change group of OLF, who are under the leadership of the hero general, calling them Oromo activists are likening this development to the formation of a new OPDO” is nothing more than naivety. We need to learn to credit our hero’s who brook the camp of enemy and left behind their respective live style to re-ignite the cause of Oromo people. Understandably, baring the responsibility of Oromumma is the duty of every Oromo, However, even as early as 2-3 years ago, letting the rusted old mentality of OLF leadership to maintain their life line on a bogus theory of nationalism set all of us to the failure to deliver.
    Overall,, since the outbreak of forming the national struggle and front line in early 70’ Oromo’s are paid their dearest and at- most prize to help realize our dreams. In reality though, this act counted out majorities of Oromo out of the prosperity game in the country, letting majority under the repression of the TPLF regime. Also we need to learn much from the 2005 Ethiopian disputed election where the CUD won the majority, especially in the areas of the upper middle class of urban areas; Amahara’s (CUD) would have been too close to cover the cause of Oromo people with the shame of blanket only to see few months letter, the old OLF leadership to create the never lived Alliance with them, in a rhetoric of “MAAN -KA MAAN- YEGANTALAL” to them and “GADAAN GADAA BILISUMATII” to Oromo audience.
    Finally, if we meant to support the cause of the Oromo people instead of giving a free ride to the never changing leadership, this is the time. Let the free world of people see we mean serious and we can speak continental and global politics. It is also a wise call to invite others and similar interest group to our cause. Oromo proverb DINII DINAA KETII FIRAA KETII, Sidaan umrii isaa gutuu Glaana keyssa Jiratee Dakka hinbaratuu.

  46. Hawwinee Barii said,

    January 9, 2012 @ 9:41 am

    The book written about Oromo people by Marial de Salviac in 1901 and translated by Ayaalaw Kannoo, said the following about Ethiopians or Abyssinians

    1. Inextricably cunning ;they cajole you today and make you weep tomorrow..

    2. They are totally destructive

    3. Deceiving constitutes greatest art

    4. They conceal their thought at the back of their head.

    5. They are less educable than Oromo.

    These are the true national character of Ethiopians against which we have to guard ourselves and take into consideration in any kind of political discourse and engagement . We have to teach our children too about these character of Ethiopians.

  47. Jobiraa said,

    January 9, 2012 @ 5:09 pm

    Wonderful Analysis Jawar,
    This move seems to be the final culmination Berhanu Nega’s persistent attack on Oromo national liberation movement against all kinds of oppression. He has been very consistent in attacking Oromo cause in contrary to his consistently inconsistent on other political and ideological issues. Berhanu Nega endorsed then 1998 Ethi-Eritrea war hoping that it would be on of the mean to crush OLF for once and all. He had advocated through Ethiopian Media and Ethiopian economic association journals that the war was the best opportunity to eliminate OLF. Fortunately, OLF and Oromo cause survived and now he changed his strategy and using our Trojan Horses to dismantle our movement from inside. This doesn’t work and will never work. In first place, he is morally responsible person for illegal war waged against Eritrea and devoured the lives of more 100,000 Ethiopian and Eritreas who have been influenced by his scholarly credential to go to war.

  48. Robel said,

    January 12, 2012 @ 9:16 am

    The Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) is a political organization established in 1973 by Oromo nationalists to lead the national liberation struggle of the Oromo people against the Abyssinian colonial rule. The emergence of the OLF was a culmination of a century old yearn of the Oromo people to have a strong and unified national organization to lead the struggle.

  49. Bedassa said,

    January 18, 2012 @ 1:07 am

    It is good for Meles that OLF to divide themselves and see people to fight each other. No Unification..Long live for Meles.

  50. debela said,

    February 3, 2012 @ 2:42 pm

    This article is try to creat some confilcts between the government opposation unity in order to help TPLF to continue on power. but such propagand has no place at all, since all opposation well understand that the ruling class repressing any tribe or ethinc in the country. TPLF alerady have a program to divide and slaved any tribe.no district would be recognized as indpendant. it is a joke for enimes and sad for our people.tplf using you as instrument .TPLF agree to scrabling ethiopia more than italy inasion.destructing your history,flag,and your natural resorces.you have no place if you are not the G family chain. Dont look at the map, look at the mirror…….

    TPLF desgrace not only ethiopian people, it desgraced all Africans allow scrabling and indestralisation for others but you will continue as a slave and no one come freed . so you must fight tplf that fight and erased your history rather confusing youself.if you are TPLF memebers I say to you, sorry you have no place in the future