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Ethiopia: Zenawi’s Strategy – Isolate, Scare and Secure the Tigrean Base | Analysis

By Jawar Siraj Mohammed*

Meles Zenawi and his oligarchy have been able to effectively execute their plans so far for the following reasons. One, as a leading member of the group that articulated the Tigrean nationalism and transformed it into a revolutionary force, he was aware that maintaining the loyalty of the Tigrean base after the fall of Derg required the presence of a permanent and imminent threat to their livelihood. Two, the oligarchy realized that, in addition to the historic Amhara-Tigrean power struggle, when such a small minority group dominates the polity, it would be unacceptable to the majority. Thus, any opposition would have to take such monopolization of the state by minority as a major issue and propagate anti-Tigrean rhetoric – which scares Tigreans and keeps them loyal to the ruling party even if they disagree with some policies of the regime.


To increase the nationalistic aspect of the rebellion, the TPLF used effective propaganda that focused on emphasizing the glorious history of Tigray from Axum onward, recreating the memory of the glorious past to create a sense of pride. The discrimination and humiliation faced by Tigreans under the Amhara domination also served to create anger against the Amhara-led central government. However, once the TPLF took power, there was no longer a “central government” to oppress the Tigray peasants. Therefore, the Front had to facilitate conditions that could help maintain the loyalty of the Tigrean people. This came in two phases. The first was favoring the region economically and popularizing this favoritism. This served two purposes. One, it made the Tigrean peasants believe that they were reaping the fruits of their sweat. Two, it helped create jealousy and furor among other Ethiopians – which created an anti-Tigrean sentiment. The goal of this first phase was to isolate the Tigrean peasants and create permanent fear so that they would remain loyal to the regime for protection. Once isolation and continuous loyalty of the Tigrean peasant was secured, the second phase was domination of all institutions (administrative, security, economic and religious) by loyal Tigrean elites. This was done to fuel resentment among the elites of other ethnic groups. Gradually, the power and privilege of Tigrean elites became dependent upon supporting and maintaining the regime by being loyal defenders of the oligarchy.

TPLF’s excessive favoritism of the Tigray region is systematically “exposed” to the opposition and to the general public. TPLF’s own homemade satellite parties (PDO’s) were created to debate and defend the disproportional growth of the Tigray region. Public debate was deliberately orchestrated to expose the level of disparity to the rest of the country in an effort to make the issue a major topic of discussion amongst the general public. In other words, the ruling party was framing the agenda for the opposition. Therefore, during the early years of Meles Zenawi’s reign, the opposition was obsessed with the rapid “Europeanization” of Tigray. Newspapers and politicians of all stripes cried the slogan of “Tigray sitlema lelaw ager yidma” – let Tigray prosper while others bleed. At the same time, the regime assured Tigreans that they were harvesting the fruit of their struggle. Those in the opposition, the Tigreans were told, are Tigre-haters who want to use excuses to bring back the old regime. Geographically isolated, facing accusation and threat from the opposition, provided comfort and assurance by their party, the people of Tigray had to remain loyal to their vanguard.

Full Article (EthioMedia.com)

* Jawar Siraj Mohammed can be reached at jawarmd@gmail.com. You can read his articles at http://dhummuugaa.wordpress.com










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1 Comment »

  1. Beyene said,

    January 12, 2010 @ 11:07 pm

    Jawar, your analysis of the extent the ordinary Tigrean population was used to serve melese zenawi’s oligarchy was great. While meles zenawi isolated, scared and secured his Tigrean base; he also put his major contenders for the state power – the Amhara and Oromo groups in constant fear of each other. I explain this.

    For the OROMO group: Meles constantly reminded them of the atrocities committed by Minilik – the prime example of the Amhara domination on Oromo poeple. By doing so, melese zenawi made sure Oromo struggle against the come-back of Amhara elites instead of focus on toppling him. He basically intensified the Oromo dislike of the Amhara system for his own purpose.

    For the AMHARA group: Melese zenawi ochestrated the Bedeno and Arba Gugu massacres in order for the Amhara people to fight against Oromo majority rule. The Bedeno and Arba Gugu massacres were the brain-childs of melese zenawi and his oligarchy, not the Oromo individuals who were used to commit the crimes. These crimes were very much felt by the Amhara community (traditionally opposed to organization by ethnic group), that Prof. Asrat Woldeyes and his friends were so much radicalized (compared to their previous outlook) to set up politcal group for Amhara – Melaw Amhara (All Amhara) party. By committing the Bedeno and Arba Gugu massacres, Melese put Amhara against Oromo, and created the fear of the “oromo majority rule”. People like Getachaw Redda, who always brings up this massacres to oppose majority rule, are being played by the Melese henious plans or they are part of the henious plan to sow fear between Amhara and Oromo.

    Till now, the oromo and amhara groups are in fear of each other. Meles wanted that in order to stay in power. therefore, securing his base (tigray) by fear is one part of the story. The other part was putting the Oromo and amhara groups in fear of each other and constant competition so they can not mount a viable opposition against him.

    Now, the most powerful opposition should be built by Amhara, Oromo and Tigrean politicans to get rid of the murderous Melese zenawi and his oligarchy.

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